6.17.2007

Deadline looms for Hawes to declare decision

Husky fans can almost quit shifting uncomfortably waiting for their favorite 7-footer to make his mind about the NBA draft. Spencer Hawes has until 2 p.m. tomorrow to make up his mind for good.

All indications have pointed to Hawes staying in the draft for some time, and that hasn't much changed, according to ESPN.com's Andy Katz:

There doesn't seem to be one NBA team that seriously believes Hawes will go back to Washington. But he has yet to give any real indication that he has made up his mind. He worked out in Minnesota, Chicago and Philadelphia and was scheduled to go to Sacramento, with Atlanta possibly on the docket after the Monday's deadline.

Boston caught a look at Hawes during the Sixers' workout this week. He is a lock for the lottery and likely wouldn't go below Philadelphia's pick at No. 12. If he can get that assurance and is comfortable with any of the previous stops, he'll likely stay in the draft.

If he returns to line up with Jon Brockman and Quincy Pondexter again, the Huskies should be a postseason team (they missed the NCAA and the NIT last season) and a thorn throughout the Pac-10. Hawes has a chance to move up in the draft next season but likely won't be a top-three pick. So he could move up a few spots by returning, but maybe not enough to make it worth his while.

I think that's asking the wrong question.

I don't think the question should be whether he would move up enough in next year's draft to make it financially worth his while; the question should be whether he'll improve enough next year to earn back the money he's forgoing over the remainder of the course of his career.

There's no doubt in my mind that Hawes would benefit developmentally from another year in school, and in my mind, that's usually enough to warrant coming back to school. Although I have no concrete evidence to back this up, it seems a player will usually develop at a faster rate playing 30 minutes a game at the college level than he will playing 15 minutes a game and sitting on the bench in the NBA.

My opinion hasn't changed. Hawes should come back to school.

Although, as a Coug fan, I won't exactly be sad when he doesn't.

5 comments:

DrPezz said...

Sounds like the high school Varsity vs. JV debate: will I be better off with more playing time on JV or with less time on varsity? However, in Hawes' case it's hard to turn down the cash now when weighing any potential injury later.

Nuss said...

Yes, but it's not like Hawes is a guy who relies on extreme athleticism. He'll still be 7 feet tall, even after a knee injury.

Unless a player is a guy who's going to be a lock for max contracts someday -- in which case it benefits them to come out ASAP to get the clock rolling -- I think guys often underestimate the money they can make in the long run by making themselves into better players before they even get to the league.

Nuss said...

Oh, and I didn't forget about the 11-foot game. I hadn't even heard of it until you mentioned it, and apparently not many other people had, either -- only 800 showed up to see it. The Times had a story on it this morning.

DrPezz said...

Practically any seven footer from the NCAA will find an NBA job. I just don't see Hawes waiting. I t would definitely surprise me.

Nuss said...

Oh, I totally agree -- I don't see him coming back, either.

I just think he'd be smart to, for his long-term development. For a guy as tall and skilled as he is to not be a Top 10 pick? I mean, the Sonics took Robert Swift at No. 11, if I remember correctly. It tells you all you need to know about what scouts believe his upside is.

He'd do better to come back to school and prove them wrong.