On freeing Adam Jones

I was listening to the Mariners postgame show a few days ago on KOMO, and team reporter Shannon Drayer and host Tom Glasgow were discussing the merits of adding pieces to a team that seemed to be struggling to score runs.

They both agreed that it would be good to add an upgrade somewhere, but then Drayer went where most traditional baseball observers go.

Chemistry.

I'm paraphrasing here because I didn't write down the quote word for word, but her "analysis" went something like this:

"In the four years I've been covering the team, this is by far the best chemistry I've seen out of the Mariners. These guys genuinely like each other and are pulling for each other to succeed, and is a big reason why they're winning," she said.

It got better. Or worse, depending on your perspective.

"I think if this team can add a bat, it definitely should do it, but it should be careful who it adds. If the Mariners can add a proven, veteran bat who's comes to the clubhouse with some respect, I think the guys put on the bench will accept it," she said.

Then, the kicker.

"But I would be careful about adding a bat that's unproven at this level. That really could disrupt what this team's got going. I would be very wary of that."

Of course, that last comment was a not-so-subtle shot at all of us who are clamoring for this team to find space somewhere in the lineup for Adam Jones, far and away the team's best prospect at AAA.

In case you've been in a cave the last three months, Jones is putting up unreal numbers in Tacoma. He's got a .315 average, .382 OBP and .590 slugging percentage, and he has 23 home runs and 79 RBI. Granted it's AAA, but for a little perspective, among the regulars only Ichiro has a higher average and OBP on the big club, and no one is even close to that kind of slugging percentage. Additionally, the defensive transition from shortstop to outfielder appears to be nearly complete, as scouts now characterize him as an above average outfielder.

That he's major league ready is no longer in question. But the Mariners' intelligence is.

There were myriad complaints the past two years that this team lacked a leader in the mold of Jay Buhner or Brett Boone. Chemistry is such a big deal with the M's and their front office that the signings of Jose Guillen and Jose Vidro were characterized as not only upgrades in talent, but "more importantly" adding some veteran leadership to the clubhouse.

Drayer doesn't come up with that kind of bunk -- and it is bunk -- on her own. She's drinking the organizational Kool Aid. My guess is players have expressed reservations privately to Drayer off the record, and also shared their thoughts with decision makers. Thus, Jones rots away in Tacoma, beating the crud out of the PCL.

There's no doubt that leadership matters on a a team -- any team. No matter the organization, having strong leaders does make a difference. But chemistry? Something entirely different and extremely overrated.

"Chemistry" does not breed success, especially in baseball where everyone has their own job to do. Guys hit and pitch well because they have talent, and don't because they don't. I've been around plenty of organizations where everyone liked each other and produced plenty of crappy work. Likewise, I've been around those where few people could stand each other, but everyone did their job well. Why? Because everyone benefits from the organization being successful, and it's stupid to waste time worrying about things like chemistry.

Success breeds chemistry, not the other way around.

This team feels good because it's 13 games over .500 ... not the other way around.

So, back to Jones. He's saying all the right things, but one has to wonder at what point it begins to discourage him. Here's to hoping Bill Bavasi was waiting for a good excuse to bring up Jones, because that time is here. The team has failed to score a run in each of its past two games, and it's heading to the bandbox that is The Ballpark in Arlington.

Where to put him? How about left field, where Raul Ibanez -- bless his heart, he's a nice guy -- has become an embarrassment as one of the worst fielders in baseball. Even if Jones doesn't hit a lick, he's got to be worth some runs for his defensive abilities alone. Additionally, Ibanez has become one of the worst hitters on the team. His line in July? Batting average .147, OBP .202, slugging .232. That is horrific ... and it's WORSE against lefties. AND HE'S BATTING THIRD.

It would be one thing if he's a guy just going through a prolonged slump. But the guy has six home runs. SIX. He's 35 years old. The end is near.

And let's not even start on Jose Vidro, he of the emptiest .299 batting average you'll ever see. Yes, his OBP is a respectable .361. But his slugging percentage is a pathetic .366 -- well below the accepted slugging "Mendoza line" of .400. It's easily the worst slugging percentage of any regular DH in the American League, and let's not forget the guy has grounded into 16 double plays this year -- second in the league.

Oh, and about that myth that Vidro is a patient hitter? He sees just 3.6 pitches per plate appearance, better only than Kenji Johjima and Yuniesky Betancourt (3.3) among Mariners regulars. For perspective, to be among the top 29 in the American League, you need to see at least 4.0 P/PA.

If I hear Rick Rizzs say Jose Vidro is the perfect number two hitter "because he does all the things a number two hitter is supposed to do -- see pitches, handle the bat, put the ball on right side" one more time, I will literally throw up. (And when I say literally, I mean it, as I'm fighting the flu right now. Awesome summer vacation!)

OK, so I started on Vidro. I digress.

I will throw in one caveat regarding Jones. It's possible he's still at AAA because the team is considering trading him and that's the best way to keep his value high. If that's true, I really, really hope Bavasi gets value in return -- not something stupid like Jason Schmidt or Dontrelle Willis. Confidence is not high after his debacle deals this past offseason. How nice would Rafael Soriano be in the 8th inning right now?

So here's to getting Jones to Seattle in what has become a long overdue move. We don't have to make a trade to make our team stronger.

Happy news, then the joke of the day

On a day when the Mariners lose a series to the Blue Jays after not scoring a run for the second consecutive game, this should make you smile.

BOSTON -- Jon Lester is slated to return to the mound for the Boston Red Sox on Monday, nearly a year after his rookie season was cut short when he was diagnosed with cancer.

Lester was scheduled to replace Julian Tavarez for Monday's game at Cleveland, the 23-year-old left-hander's first major league appearance since he beat the Los Angeles Angels on Aug. 23 last year. The Red Sox said nine days later that he had a treatable form of lymphoma.

Lester is a native Tacoman who pitched at Bellarmine Prep in high school, so good on him.

Then, there's this little delicious gem.

The club will designate pitcher Joel Pineiro (for assignment) prior to the game on Monday to make room on the roster. Pineiro was 1-1 with a 5.03 ERA in 31 games this season.

That's right, folks. After convincing the Red Sox he didn't suck to the tune of $4 million, Boston has confirmed that he does, indeed, suck.

For those of you looking for the joke, is there any bigger joke than Joel Pineiro?

That's what I thought.

Eating crow on Ichiro

Way back at the beginning of the season, I devoted an entire post on how overrated Ichiro is -- how he'd never be worth the $16-18 million he'd likely command on the open market, and how the Mariners would be smart to keep their money and let the selfish singles hitter walk.

As the Mariners prepare to pay Ichiro $90 million over the next five years, I just have one thing to say.

I was wrong. Really, really wrong.

I still stand by many of the things I said, put into the context of the post's April 12 date. At the time, he certainly seemed to be in the midst of what could be reasonably interpreted as a statistical decline.

Additionally, my perception that he wasn't contributing as much to the team's success wasn't entirely off base, either. After "creating" 146 runs in 2004 (the year of 262) -- runs created uses batting and baserunning to try to quantify the overall offensive contribution -- he created only 113 and 114 runs the past two years. Still pretty good, but not quintessential Ichiro.

I wondered if the Ichiro of 2001 and 2004 could ever return.

Well, he's returned with a vengeance and is a huge reason why this team seems to be overachieving this year. He's on pace to "create" 140 runs, but if fancy stats don't tickle your fancy, consider that he's on track to post his highest batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage since 2004, and his highest stolen base total since his rookie year.

Clearly, he still possesses the ability to change games the way he did in the past.

Also, upon reflection, I think I was vastly undervaluing Ichiro's defensive contribution as a centerfielder. When I wrote that original post in April, Ichiro had only played CF for a grand total of two months, and I really was still valuing him as a rightfielder. Playing centerfield everyday this year, Ichiro has proven to be an extremely valuable defensive commodity (two flyballs from Curtis Granderson notwithstanding). Defense matters -- it's the kind of thing that can take a guy from being worth $12 million a year to $18 million a year.

Many wonder if it's wise to give that kind of money to a 33-year-old. Dave Cameron at USS Mariner answers that question here, and I happen to agree with him. His argument is long, so here's the gist: Even if he declines at the expected rate -- no sure thing for a guy who Bill Bavasi said is in better shape at 33 than many players are at 23 -- by advanced statistical measures, he'll still be worth the money. And if you count yourself a person (like many in the mainstream national media and Dave Samson) who think there's no way a singles hitter can be worth that kind of money, check out this post by Cameron; it might cause you to reconsider what his skill set is actually worth.

At any rate, this team simply could not let Ichiro walk away -- not when it's experiencing the turnaround of this season and fans are beginning to flock back to Safeco Field. That's not something to be overlooked, given the downward trend in attendance the team has been experiencing. Ichiro is the main star attraction on a winning team that is winning back its fans. This signing just continues the excitement.

Had the team continued to flounder as it had the past two seasons, I still would have been first in line to say let him walk. Like a lot of leadoff hitters, he's really only as valuable as the guys behind him, and the guys behind him the past three years have been awfully bad.

But this year, he's showing what he can do when he's surrounded by some talent. Once again, he's showing just how valuable he can be on a contending team.

And that makes him worth every penny.

Reading between Ichiro's lines -- good luck to you!

After the Mariners finally got manager John McLaren his first win yesterday at the helm of the Mariners, Ichiro had some curious comments afterward.

For those of you looking for something "sinister" in the resignation of Mike Hargrove, I imagine you'll feel free to read plenty into these.

First, this one, told to the Japanese media and translated over at Detect-o-vision (courtesy of Enjoy The Enjoyment):

"There was a play (in the game) with a certain intention. A play we did not have for 2 years."

He was speaking, according the site, of a specific play in the game that seemed to be a part of having a plan to win the game -- something Hargrove apparently was lacking.

Then, there is this nugget, courtesy of Larry LaRue at The (Tacoma) News Tribune:

"We don’t know what the future holds for manager John McLaren,” Ichiro said. “But to be part of his first victory was emotional for all of us. I want to help him win a lot of games in his career.”

Wait. Did the guy who is an unrestricted free agent at the end of the year just say he wants to help the new manager win "a lot of games in his career"? I hope I'm not making too much of an assumption that McLaren's career will last more than half a season ...

Welcome to the world of hanging on every word of your team's superstar, made even more fun by the fact that he's Japanese, won't speak English to the media, and loves to give quotes that are more riddles than answers.

Just one more fun thing to watch for the rest of the season.

McLaren drops debut, torches bullpen in the process

Let's go ahead and begin this conversation with the understanding that John McLaren's managing style will be developed over weeks and months, not three hours, 20 minutes and 11 innings.

That said, I think there are some things worth noting in this, his first game as manager.

The thing that obviously sticks out above all others was his use of the pitching staff tonight, which probably cost the M's the game. It just seemed like a classic case of overmanaging, which might be expected given that the guy hasn't managed his own baseball team in about 20 years.

It started with his decision to pull Felix after eight innings, but just 92 pitches. Following a rocky first inning, Felix was on cruise control most of the rest of the way, and there was no real reason to pull him from a tie game. I haven't seen anything from McLaren yet on his decision to pull Felix, but I presume it was because David DeJesus -- he of the two hits, including a home run, off Hernandez -- was leading off the ninth. (UPDATE: Felix says he was gassed from the humidity.)

But ... who knew how long the game was going to last? Seems logical to ride that horse as long as he'll let you ride him. Especially since pulling Hernandez opened a can of worms McLaren wasn't prepared to deal with. It resulted in him burning through three relievers -- Eric O'Flaherty, Sean Green and George Sherrill -- to get three outs in the ninth inning of a tie game.

Of course, O'Flaherty put him in a bad spot by giving up two quick hits, but turning to Green was a bad option to begin with. McLaren clearly had no intention of letting Green pitch past Emil Brown, given Green's horrendous .364/.511/.455 line against lefties. My guess is McLaren was hoping for a DP out of Green, but when he didn't get it, he was left with no choice but to turn to Sherrill. The better option would have been to turn to Sherrill in the first place -- he's been equally effective against both righties and lefties.

Three relievers. Three outs. A game that could have gone on indefinitely with just three relievers remaining.

Saddled with an offense that couldn't get a hit with runners in scoring position, McLaren had no choice but to turn to Brandon Morrow for as long as he could go, because he only had two other pitchers left: Rookie Ryan Rowland-Smith (he of the 2 1/3 career major league innings) and J.J. Putz (who presumably was being held back for a save situation). (UPDATE: Putz was unavailable tonight.)

It backfired, as Morrow proved once again that his command simply isn't yet good enough for extended appearances.

I won't crucify McLaren for what looks like a pretty bad bit of bullpen management tonight. After all, it was only game one, and one has figure he's going to learn from it. But for those who say managers tend to have a relatively negligent impact on teams, McLaren deserves a fair share of the blame for tonight's loss.

That said, I feel good about the next two days, even if the eight-game winning streak is now over. As Bill Kruger said tonight on FSN, this was the very best the Royals have to throw at us, and you have to believe that a team that has hit nearly .300 with runners in scoring position this year won't be stranding nine runners again.

So, here's to taking the next two from the Royals and moving on to Oakland to finish the first half out strong. Let's hope McLaren's bullpen shenanigans don't have a lasting effect.

Hargrove resigns as M's manager

I think we all came into this season figuring that Mike Hargrove would lose his job at some point. I just don't think any of us, in our wildest imagination -- with the team 11 games over .500 and riding a seven-game winning streak -- thought it would come like this.

Saying it had become harder and harder to bring daily the effort and energy he demands of his players, Hargrove resigned today as manager of the Mariners, effective after the Sunday matinée with the Toronto Blue Jays.

He insisted the decision was his and his alone.

"There are no dark sinister reasons for this decision," Hargrove said at a hastily called press conference this morning. "This is my decision.

"It’s not a problem with players, not a problem with Bill (Bavasi), not a problem with clubhouse manager, not a problem with my wife. It’s an accumulation of 35 years. That’s a long time. It’s just an accumulation of things. It's not one thing – I was not forced into this decision. There was a strong, credible job done by everyone to talk me out of it.

"But this is the right thing to do for Mike Hargrove and the Seattle Mariners."

Hargrove's always been a straight shooter, as is his nature as a native Texan, so it's hard not to take him at his word. But it's also hard not to wonder if there's another story, although any thoughts along those lines would be pure speculation at this point. And there will be plenty of that over the next 24 hours.

For now, I'll choose to accept his reasons, especially given that so much of what he said seems to be centered around his family. Family is unbelievably important to me, and I can't imagine what it would be like to be away from my wife and child for the extended periods demanded of a major league manager. This is a guy who's done it for 35 years. And when a guy says he's talked more to his wife in the past 10 days than he has in 10 years, well, that's pretty telling to me.

What to think of Hargrove's tenure?

For all the shots the guy has taken about his over reliance on veterans and ridiculous insistence on generally ignoring platoon splits, he did lead the team to heights I don't think any of us expected this year. Raise your hand if you thought this team would be 11 games over .500 at any point in 2007, let alone in June. That's what I thought.

And in many ways, this is the best possible scenario for Hargrove. He leaves with the team probably overachieving a bit, having overseen what appears to be an organization that has turned the corner from irrelevance to relevance once again. Even if interim manager John McLaren -- the guy we wanted to take over a long time ago -- comes in and leads the team to a playoff appearance, Hargrove will get a lot of the credit. If McLaren doesn't? If the team crumbles? It will be on him, even if such a fall would have been inevitable under Hargrove.

Will this team succeed under McLaren? The reality is nobody really knows how he's going to manage. I think we all suspect he'll be a little more prone to do some of the things we criticized Hargrove for not doing, given his seemingly more analytical nature. It'll be interesting to see how he forges out his own managing style, given all the years he spent hanging out with Lou Piniella, a manager notorious for his lack of patience with young players.

Will he be more open to Adam Jones playing everyday, as Jones should be? Will he fight for Jones' call-up if Bavasi doesn't want it? Will he be smart enough to make sure Jose Vidro never sees the top two-thirds of the batting order ever again? Will he have a better relationship with Ichiro, to the point that the team's lone superstar wants to stay in Seattle after this season? How will he manage the bullpen, which is going to have about three guys with arms fall off at this pace? Will he be more or less afraid to step on veterans' toes to make the right moves, given his interim status?

All will be things to keep an eye on, as this team tries to continue its current momentum. And we will keep an eye on it, starting tomorrow at Kansas City.

Until then, let's hope Hargrove goes out with a bang by sweeping the Blue Jays to finish a 10-2 homestand.

Mariners sweep away Red Sox

I'm a little speechless right now about what I witnessed this afternoon. Is this team just teasing us? I'm not sure.

What I do know is that they're a heck of a lot of fun to watch right now, and while the Red Sox haven't exactly been the hottest team in baseball over the past month, that's still a darn good team that the M's swept aside by beating Daisuke Matsuzaka.

For all the work they've done this year in improving on last year's record, one can hardly deny that they've seemed to do it by beating up on the weak sisters of the American League. The M's haven't exactly had a lot of success against the likes of the Angels and the Red Sox.

Until this series.

I wish I had more insightful commentary, but I'm not sure I know how this team keeps doing it. Ryan Feierabend had no right to do what he did today -- not after what happened on Friday. They're also winning in different ways, a departure from the Mariners' earlier win streaks.

The M's are now back to nine games over .500 and just two games back in the wild card standings, five back in the AL West as the Angels got swept by the Royals. So far, so good in the start to what was identified as a critical stretch against quality opponents; even our friends over at coolstandings.com have the M's playoff chances off of life support and back up to 20 percent.

Go take two out of three from the Blue Jays and the M's really will have something going.

And one more thing.

J.J. Putz is still the best closer in baseball.

What the heck is wrong with Felix?

A lot of people are trying to figure out what's wrong with Felix Hernandez, especially after another thoroughly average performance against the Red Sox which, of course, the M's were able to overcome with some typically stellar work out of the bullpen.

Some thought he was "fixed" after his last outing against the Pirates, but Jeff Sullivan over at Lookout Landing saw things that troubled him even in that performance. It's required reading, and it looks like he was right. There's no doubt that his stuff isn't as good as it was earlier in the year -- the data is there to prove it. (Why it's not as good, who knows. Felix says he's healthy. Sullivan's theory is here.)

But the folks over at USS Mariner have been hammering on Felix's pitch selection for some time, and given the way Jeff Weaver handcuffed the Sox last night with his array of junk, and given the way the Sox hammered away at Hernandez's steady diet of fastballs ... well, I have to believe there's some truth to that theory. (UPDATE: USS Mariner reiterates the point Wednesday.)

My take? He was able to get away with sketchy pitch selection when he was throwing a 94 mph two-seamer down in the zone and painting that 97 mph four seamer on the corners. Now that he's not doing that ... well, you see the results.

The crazy thing is that he's a guy who, for all the strikeouts, is a groundball pitcher. That should result in lower pitch counts. But his insistence on throwing that four-seamer -- which is straight as an arrow and often results in foul balls -- is killing his pitch counts, and keeping him from going deep in games. He needs to get back to focusing on getting outs early in the count, and it's probably well past time that he start using his off speed stuff to set up his fastball to do it.

Other quick observations from the night that was ...

• What to make of taking the first two from the Red Sox? I'm not sure. After all, they beat up on one mediocre journeyman (Julian Tavarez) and one overmatched rookie who couldn't find the strike zone. Is this team for real? I still can't decide. But I'm enjoying the ride.
  
  
• Mike Hargrove has done a pretty admirable job managing this team this year, but every once in a while, he does something that just leaves you scratching your head. Like batting Jose Vidro in the 3-hole. I thought we established long ago that Vidro is not a good hitter, and putting a not good hitter in the 3-hole is counterproductive -- especially when you have another hitter in your lineup who rakes lefty pitching batting sixth.
  
  Not to get all sabermetric on you, but there's a theory out there by guys that are good with numbers that you want to get the guys who create more runs more at bats in any given game. Guys with higher OPS create more runs. Vidro's OPS against lefties is .673; Jose Guillen's is 1.079. Seriously, what's so hard to understand here?
  
  
• J.J. Putz is still the best closer in baseball.
  
  
• What is with the Mariners' defense the past two games? The third inning yesterday and various points today -- Jose Lopez's backhand ole of David Ortiz's shot sticking out in my mind -- leave me wondering when it's really going to catch up with this team to the point that it costs them a game. It also leaves me wondering who the bozo official scorer is who keeps calling those things hits. Granted, Lopez made a great diving catch to save a run, but is it too much to ask for these guys to make the routine plays?
  
  
• Why is Willie Freaking Bloomquist playing left field with Raul Ibanez hurt when there's a guy with 17 bombs and a .979 OPS playing in Tacoma? This is seriously reaching comical proportions ... except that letting Adam Jones rot away at AAA is going to start costing the team games at some point, too. And that's not funny.
  
  
• Is this the beginning of the Richie Sexson tear? He's 5 for his past 14 with three homers. If he comes around, this offense gets scary good.
  

Reflecting on our weekend with Junior

First off, let me apologize for being so hit-and-miss with posts lately -- I really try to get at least one thing up each day, but when a blog is a one-man show, well, sometimes things like weddings, grading, the end of the school year, packing and moving get in the way of that man writing. Things should be a little clearer here the rest of the summer without having to do something quite so trivial as report to work.

But even as I watch this wild affair of a baseball game between the M's and the Red Sox, I'm reminded that I promised you some thoughts on the return of Junior.

I was on my way out to our fourth 1-year-old birthday party of the month of June on Sunday -- no, I don't know what was going on in September 2005 -- when my phone rang. My dad was on the other end.

"Are you watching the game?"

"I was, but I just left the house. I haven't turned the radio on yet. What's up? Did Junior hit another homer?"

And there was the rub. It wasn't so much that he had, indeed, hit his second homer of the game. It was more that as soon as my dad asked if I was watching the game, I just knew he was calling to tell me that Griffey had done something special yet again.

That's what it was like watching Junior all those years he was here in Seattle, and that's what I'll remember most about his time here. No matter what, you never wanted to leave your seat at a Mariners game because you never knew when Junior was going to do something special.

I remember sitting there as a kid with my bladder about to burst, waiting for that moment in the game when the M's were up to bat and Junior had no chance of coming to the plate so I could finally go to the bathroom. You didn't dare leave when the M's were on defense -- what if Griffey made one of those spectacular catches? No way was I going to miss that.

Leave a blowout early? Please.

And that's what this weekend was all about. It was to remember a time when the first bona fide superstar this town ever had captured our hearts. It was to remember when the Mariners could be exciting even when they were terrible, thanks to sheer magnitude of Junior's talent and charisma.

For just three days, all of that was back. We watched every at bat as if we might recapture just a little of that magic together. We cheered when he succeeded, a well-deserved response to the man who saved baseball in this city.

Much has been made of those cheers; those that objected to it because he plays for the other team are either short-sighted or ignorant, and I have patience for neither. Yes, this is a team in the throws of something resembling a pennant race, but no one is going to make me feel bad for finally getting a chance to properly honor a player who brought so much joy my life, whether he plays for the other team or not.

It wasn't about a win or a loss, especially on Friday night. I could care less that my team got blown out. All I could think about leading up to the game was what I felt like the day he was traded, watching his first news conference with Cincinnati, just hoping he'd say something to those of us in Seattle who stood by him for so long.

Then, I thought about what it was going to be like to finally get to replace that with a proper goodbye. It was everything I could have dreamed of, and more.

And that's what I'll remember now.

Would I love for him to come back, as he suggested he might? Sure I would. But I also know Junior to be a fickle, emotional guy who sometimes says things he doesn't mean. If my last memory is of him telling us how much he missed us, and of him waving to the crowd as he came off the field for the last time on Sunday, well, I'm perfectly OK with that.

Mariners get back on winning track in improbable fashion

Since I didn't get to watch the game last night -- I listened to most of it via radio while I was out driving around the greater South Sound region in search of new clothes -- I had this idea in my mind of checking out MLB.com's Gameday data to see if I could figure out how in the heck Jeff Weaver did what he did last night.

Then I got to school, checked in with U.S.S. Mariner and found that Dave Cameron already beat me to the punch.

Seriously, go read it. It's good. And while it might not give any indication that he can even come close to duplicating last night's occurrence, it does at least try to make sense out of how it happened. (Hint: Weaver's stuff was basically the same, he's still a junkballer, but different pitch selection might partly explain the unexplainable.)

Other things I noticed last night ...

• While listening to the game on the radio last night, I remembered why it is that I love Dave Niehaus so very much, and why I want to punch in the mouth anyone who suggests he should hang it up because he can't keep up with the game. So what if he occasionally thinks an shallow fly ball is a home run, or if he confuses a name here and there? Niehaus is a master story teller, and that's what baseball is all about.
  
  Last night, he and Rizzs were telling this story about the origin of "uncle charlie" as slang for a curveball. You probably had to be there, but it just cracked me up. It was Niehaus at his finest, and the reason why he's on the short list of people alive I'd love to just sit down and have dinner with. I'll miss him so much the day he decides to hang it up. I hope it's not soon, because the guy is priceless. He belongs in the Hall of Fame, and I hope they figure that out before he dies.
  
  
• Kudos to Mike Hargrove for finally moving Richie Sexson down in the order. Let's hope he resists the urge to quickly move him back up after two consecutive games with a home run.
  
  
• You know, after all the heat Adrian Beltre has taken the past two-plus years from all of us, finding out what life is like without him was not pleasant. I know this still doesn't justify his massive contract, but we all should just get over what he's getting paid. The guy is a great defender and a key component of this offense. I still wish he'd get on base more, and I still wish he'd hit for a little more power, but boy, that offense goes from being pretty good to being pretty mediocre when he's not in there.
  
  
• One last thing about Weaver: I know a lot of fans still are rooting for him to fail so that the team will jettison him with a DFA. But it's in everyone's best interest that Weaver stay in the rotation if he can, and last night gives us hope that it might yet happen. Ryan Feierabend -- who, incidentally, is going to be taking Cha Seung Baek's turn in the rotation next time out, thanks to a combination of a favorable matchup with the Reds and Baek's suckitude last time out -- would be best served to play this year in AAA, and Horacio Ramirez would be best served by never seeing the major league roster again, ever. What does that mean? Weaver pitching well enough to keep heading to the hill every fifth day is what's best for the team, embarrassing Bavasi be darned.

The beauty of the Internet, in one post

There are a lot of reasons I love being a Mariners fan. (Yes, you read that right.) One of the big ones is that while I have no empirical evidence to support this claim, I have to believe that we have to be the most information savvy bunch in the major leagues.

I love reading other blogs, especially U.S.S. Mariner and Geoff Baker's blog at The Seattle Times. (You can find the others I love on the right hand side.) I love reading them because I know a lot about sports, but I love to learn, and I always become a better-educated fan when I visit these sites. USSM's knowledge of baseball built as sabermetricians and Baker's knowledge of baseball and the Mariners built as a beat writer make for tons of good information.

The two had basically coexisted separately. Until recently, when their respective blogs crossed paths in a very public way.

It's why I love the Internet.

It started with this post by Baker, on the likelihood a team with an ERA higher than 4.50 (read: the Mariners) will make the playoffs.

I received a very interesting email today from a friend of this blog, Jack Lattemann, who has done an exhaustive study of whether teams with an earned run average of 4.50 or higher can even post winning records, let alone contend for a playoff spot. Jack has graciously allowed me to pass on his findings. They don't look good on the Mariners, who have a 4.84 team ERA despite a rock solid bullpen. He found that no team before 1969 had qualified for the playoffs. Not surprising, given the two-league format. There were a few more, post-1969, that made it. During the two-division format (four teams making the playoffs) from 1969-1993, the only playoff team with a 4.50 ERA or higher was the 1987 World Series champion Minnesota Twins, who finished 85-77 with a 4.63 ERA.

Dave Cameron over at U.S.S. Mariner -- after praising Baker for his coverage on the blog and the work he's done to interact with fans and the blogging community -- took exception to this kind of analysis, as did a number of commenters on Baker's blog. And with good reason.

Where to start with this paragraph - how about with the glaring, obvious problem, and one that I’ve been railing on for years here - Earned Run Average, by itself, is not any real indicator of pitching quality. It’s just not. I know it’s commonly accepted as the be-all, end-all pitching statistic, but the reliance on this inherently problematic stat has led to more bad analysis over the years than just about any other statistic out there. Using ERA to draw broad conclusions about pitching ability is a great way to be wrong on a large scale.

In reality, ERA kinda sorta measures the ability of the team’s run prevention skills when a specific pitcher is on the hill. ERA doesn’t attempt to separate responsibility for said run prevention between pitcher and defenders. It doesn’t attempt to take into account the context of the run scoring environment. And, just in case those weren’t big enough problems (they are), it introduces the biases of ballpark specific official scorers by excluding “unearned runs”, which are often classified as such due to arbitrary decisions on what constitutes an error.

Cameron goes on to explain that you have to consider run scoring environments of eras of the game before making any kind of cross-era analysis.

(P)icking a random ERA number that reflects “bad pitching” and applying it to any context is going to result in a list that means absolutely nothing. If you want to use ERA to evaluate a pitching staff, you’d be forced to come to the conclusion that the Washington Nationals currently have a better pitching staff than the Chicago White Sox. After all, they have a lower ERA. Of course, everyone understands that there’s a huge difference between pitching in RFK stadium against National League hitters and not facing the DH and facing American League hitters in New Comiskey park. We wouldn’t expect Mike Bacsik to post a 4.59 ERA if he was traded to the White Sox. No one would.

Baker's response on his blog?

Back to yesterday's post, I actually understated the infrequency with which teams have made the playoffs with an ERA of 4.50 or more. While the number of playoff teams with an ERA that high, since the advent of the wild-card, was 13 out of 96, the number of teams making the playoffs with an ERA that high was just 13 out of 354. One in 27. Is this all just a coincidence, as some suggest? Is there really no direct relation between ERA and making the playoffs? Well, let's just say that the more runs you allow, the more you have to score to win. The more wins, the easier to make the playoffs. Could we get scientifically more precise? Of course.

But I had no problem with Lattemann using an ERA of 4.50 and higher as a measuring stick. The average ERA in baseball last year was 4.44 and it's averaged out to roughly that since this decade began. So, anything 4.50 and worse would generally stand to be below average.

Some people objected to using ERA at all, while others say we should have adjusted it for park factors -- which looks at the difference between runs allowed at home versus the road and adjusts statistics accordingly. Well, park factors may have been needed if, say, we'd used ERA to gauge a Cy Young Award race. But not in this case, since we're merely looking at who made the playoffs. In other words, who won more games by scoring more runs than they allowed (or allowing fewer runs than they scored?) Park factors are irrelevant here. You score (and allow) the runs where the games are played and that alone determines who wins. At the end of a season, all MLB cares about in deciding a winner is who won the most games, not how easy or difficult it was to score runs in those games because of ballpark intangibles.

Finally, Baker relented in his next post.

First, let me deal with the issue of the posts from this morning and yesterday. You know, when enough people tell you you're wrong, you start to think that maybe they're on to something. So, I went back and had another look at those numbers using the suggested ERA+ method to account for park factors. The reasoning I listened to, from "Sammy" in the comments thread, Dave at the USS Mariner site, and others, has convinced me that comparing teams using a statistic that could adapt to changing year-to-year run conditions -- rather than a static number that couldn't change -- was the best way to go. ...

And the park factors do matter. I erred in saying they didn't. After all, you compete for the playoffs with other teams. The ability of those teams to score and prevent runs, based on the factors in the ballparks of the day, will have a bearing on it.

USSM's response? Big time kudos.

Geoff has been paid to write about baseball for a long time. He’s a very smart guy, and he puts a lot of work into what he does. And yet, when some fans challenge a point he made, he’s willing to listen, evaluate what they’re saying, and take another look at his stance. Truth is more important than pride, and Geoff proved that in spades.

Baker deserves a lot of credit for taking the time to dive into the issue. He’s already set the bar for Mariner beat-writers to follow, and now he’s just pushing it even higher.

Congratulations to the Seattle Times - you made a fantastic hire.

It's hard to imagine that there are very many cities where virtual conversations such as this one take place. And that, my friends, is why I consider myself fortunate to be a Mariners fan and why I love the Internet.

Are M's losing because they're tired, or tired because they're losing?

Much has been made of this stretch of games the M's have found themselves in, and what it's done to the team's play. I referenced it yesterday, and it's generating considerable discussion.

Geoff Baker at The Seattle Times tries to give some perspective on what it's like to travel from city to city to city, something most of us have no concept of.

Some of you think the travel stuff is overblown. Let me tell you, it is not. I've done this for a decade and I've never been more tired on the road than I've been this season. And I am in shape. Run three miles per day at a clip of seven minutes or less each. Lift weights. And I am tired. Why? Those added Cleveland stints really add up. That extra city has made the last two trips a four-city experience. Few ballclubs ever have to do that. Maybe once a year tops. Not on back-to-back trips. Not across multiple time zones and back again. It doesn't matter whether or not you are in a first class seat. I've been upgraded on a few of these flights and while it's great to have some food and a few inches more space, it doesn't change the stress and fatigue that even a one-hour flight places on your body.

However, he stops short of using it as a full excuse -- more like a semi-excuse:

The Mariners have gotten by all season long with starting pitching that befits a .500 team at best. Nothing better and nothing worse. Maybe a few games in either direction, but .500. They've scored a few less runs than they've allowed and that usually has .500 written all over it.

Lately, the offense had gone on a tear that no team in the history of baseball has been able to sustain over an entire season. The Mariners averaged about seven runs per game for a month. That's over 1,100 runs in a season. Again, check the history books. Can't be sustained.

So, the team just played 46 games in 48 days and the hitters got tired. Sexson as well. He's tired. Jose Guillen is more worn out than he's ever been in his career. Adrian Beltre is hurt. Jose Lopez's brother just died. Raul Ibanez looks like he's sleeping on his feet. Mentally and physically, these hitters are spent. Throw that into the mix with the usual starting pitching -- mostly adequate, but by no means contender-like -- and the losses start coming. Unless the hitters can pile up the runs, a team giving up five or more per game will usually lose as often, or more, than it wins.

Dave Cameron over at U.S.S. Mariner takes it one step further, completely debunking the travel quasi-excuse and simply stating the M's are not a very good team by comparing them to the Indians, who have endured a similar stretch.

Since the snowout series, the Mariners have played 63 games in 69 days. ... Since the snowout series, the Indians have played 65 games in 69 days. The Indians are 40-28, first place in the A.L. Central, having outscored their opponents by 46 runs on the year. They’ve played two more games since the end of the snowout series than the Mariners have in the same amount of days. I’m sure they’re a tired bunch, but unfortunately, I can’t find any quotes in the Cleveland Plain-Dealer to prove it. Maybe they were too tired to give interviews?

Or, alternately, perhaps they’ve overcome their exhaustion and continued to win baseball games because they’re a good team. A playoff team. A team with a well constructed roster able to provide organizational depth when the preseason rotation falls to pieces. ... Perhaps it’s not the schedule? Perhaps it’s the roster.

I think the truth probably resides more on Baker's side. Talent obviously has something to do with it, as the Mariners' considerable flaws are getting emphasized right now, thanks to all the games in a row on a pitching staff that already was thin. Throw in the fact that traveling from Seattle -- where EVERYTHING is far away -- is a lot different than traveling from Cleveland, and you've got the makings of a devastating losing streak.

Disastrous weekend leaves M's searching for answers

After a start to the road trip that could not have been better, the M's finished up in the worst possible way by dropping five straight and leaving themselves in third place and 7 games behind the Angels, if they finish off the Dodgers, whom they lead 8-3 right now.

Some players have speculated that the team is tired after a daunting stretch of 33 games in 34 days, thanks to rainout makeups from early in the season. But that's not their biggest problem.

When the team got hot over the past few weeks, we knew two things for certain: 1) This team would not keep scoring 8-10 runs a game; 2) If the pitching staff kept pitching the way it was during the team's hot streak, that hot streak was going to end in hurry.

You see, the biggest issue in this losing streak wasn't the offense. Yes, the team only scored 14 runs over those five games. But in the last two, the team never had a chance thanks to the pitching staff, and the M's also watched as Brandon Morrow coughed up the team's first loss after leading after 8 innings. Combine that with a pair of very poor offensive performances, and you've got the makings of a losing streak.

Even great offensive teams go through stretches where they just don't score a ton of runs. If they are to be successful teams that win consistently, they need their pitching staffs to pick them up occasionally with a 1 or 2-run start. That hasn't happened for the Mariners, whose pitching staff hasn't given up less than three runs in a game since holding the Royals to one run all the way back on May 26.

That is not the recipe for consistent winning baseball.

We've been saying it for some time, but the cries became muted as the offense overcame its deficiencies: The starters have to do more. A lot more.

Felix has to figure out a way to go 7-plus innings on a semi-consistent basis. Jarrod Washburn has to pitch like he did earlier this year, although our worst fear -- that we were playing with house money when it came to 2.50 ERA Washburn -- might just be coming true. Miguel Batista has to not suck (for the love of God, don't be fooled by those people who point to his 7 wins and say that he's a guy who just figures out how to win) and Jeff Weaver needs to be out of the rotation. Cha Seung Baek was terrible yesterday, but c'mon -- you're going to get that every once in a while from a guy like him.

I'm optimistic about Felix, but not so much about Washburn, Batista and Weaver. And that's going to make for some roller coaster nights from here on out, and probably some roller coaster trips like the ones the M's just finished.

The good news is that after a day off tomorrow, the M's begin a 12-game homestand starting with six against the Pirates and Reds. I think some of the Mariners' recent offensive issues will work themselves out. The day of rest won't hurt, and Adrian Beltre should be returning to the lineup in a couple of days.

I think it's also going to benefit the team tremendously to return to American League rules. Much of this team's offensive effectiveness comes from having offensive threats up and down the lineup. But in an NL park with Beltre out, the Willie Bloomquist/pitcher black hole at the bottom of the order really presented some issues.

It's also time for the team to stop taking a very long, hard look at calling up Adam Jones from Tacoma and just do it.

There's no doubt he's ready offensively -- you can read about that here and here and here -- but I think the bigger benefit will be with Jones roaming left field. It's become pretty painful to watch Raul Ibanez play out there, and that was never more evident than Friday night when a pair of doubles eluded his reach -- two doubles that, if caught, would have ended innings and saved three runs from Felix's line.

Jones would have caught them both fairly easily.

It's time for Ibanez -- who still has value as a hitter (.295/.357/.455 in May and June) -- to move to the DH role. Obviously, Jose Vidro was not brought here and given an extension at the unconscionable amount of $7.5 million per year to sit on the bench and become a pinch hitter. But to keep a guy in the lineup just because you made a questionable move to bring him here in the first place when Jones represents such a clear upgrade is sheer stupidity.

Bring on the Pirates. We need them after that debacle.

A new definition of courage, courtesy J.J. Putz

Sometimes, it's tough for fans to remember that our favorite players really are just people.

Well, if you need a reminder, check out this note on closer J.J. Putz.

How the man held it together for a save, I'll never know.

M's sweep Padres on the road to move to within 4.5 games

Finally, the M's catch a break with the Angels, who lose to the Cardinals 9-6. Now just 4.5 games back after another gutty one-run win. How about Bloomquist stealing third there to set up the go-ahead run? Stellar.

I'll hopefully have some more thoughts on the game later tonight, but this is the one thought that already keeps sticking with me: I don't know how this team keeps doing it. The M's just keep figuring out ways to pull out wins, and that's as good an indication of a good ball club as any, in my book.

By the way, after watching him mow down the Padres again, is there any better closer in baseball right now than J.J. Putz? Jeff Sullivan over at Lookout Landing doesn't think so:

In save situations, opposing batters are hitting just .083/.154/.150 off of JJ Putz, with four walks and 18 strikeouts in 60 at bats. In one-run games, that batting line is .107/.167/.143, with two and ten in 28. In twelve plate appearances with two outs and runners in scoring position, Putz has yet to allow a baserunner. On zero days' rest, he's given up one hit in 5.2 shutout innings. I could keep listing off stat after stat, but instead I'm just going to say this: JJ Putz is the best closer in baseball. He's not pitching on a level all his own, but among the elites, he's currently the leader. With the game on the line, there's no one I'd rather have on the mound.

He made the Padres look silly in the 9th, and he seems to only be getting stronger as the year goes along. Seriously, he might already be the best closer in team history. I know we all have a soft spot in our hearts for Sasaki, but c'mon: The Kaz-man was heartburn city more often than not. Whenever Putz comes to the mound, you just know the game is over. He's that good -- and I'm not sure I can say that about any other guy who's ever held that role for the M's.

Anyway, more to come later. Enjoy the sweep.

Move Weaver to the bullpen already

I was encouraged by Jeff Weaver's 4-inning, 2-run performance last night for one reason and one reason only.

He looks like he could be wicked out of the bullpen. That's pretty much it.

It's a good thing his "injury" is healed after his month-long stint on the disabled list, because all that work he did with the Mariners' trainers seems to have added exactly zero MPH to his fastball.

According to MLB.com's Gameday, he did touch 91 and 92 in the first inning -- although their readings tend to be a little faster than what you see on TV -- but he was basically 88-89 the rest of the way. Additionally, he essentially abandoned the fastball as the game wore on.

It's this last development that gives me hope that he can yet contribute to this team's success.

At this point, I have no hope that Weaver can be a starter on this team, as Ryan Feierabend looks like an infinitely more competent starter at this point, even though he's still got more developing to do. But that slider of Weaver's still can be murder on righties, and after watching how Jason Davis got butchered in his two innings, how much stronger would our bullpen be with Weaver back there to face righties, Feierabend in the rotation, and Davis back in AAA?

The Mariners haven't announced their plans for Weaver yet, since he left the game last night with a stiff back -- one can only hope that another trip to the DL is imminent -- but here's to hoping they stand up to the veteran this time and put him in a role where he actually can contribute to what this team, now six games over .500, is doing.

Felix goes against Chris Young today. This is a few days old, but Dave Cameron over at U.S.S. Mariner pointed out this interesting note after Hernandez's last start:

Hitters against Felix, pitches 1-25: .364/.396/.614, 7 XBH, 1.010 OPS
Hitters against Felix, pitches 26-50: .295/.380/.341, 2 XBH, .721 OPS
Hitters against Felix, pitches 51-75: .237/.310/.316, 3 XBH, .626 OPS
Hitters against Felix, pitches 76-100: .265/.324/.471, 4 XBH, .795 OPS

He attributes it to too many fastballs early, and it seems to jive with the organizational philosophy of "establishing the fastball." It'll be interesting to see what Felix's approach is today against the Padres, especially given San Diego's lack of success hitting Weaver's breaking stuff yesterday.

Oh, and by the way, despite all these wins by the M's, their playoff chances actually have decreased by about 5 percent in the past week. Every day that goes by that they don't make up ground, it becomes harder and harder to catch Anaheim.

Still think that series ending loss to the Angels wasn't that big of a deal?

Check out my brother's new blog; and other quick thoughts

I don't have a lot of time to write today, so I want to pass along a few things.

Apparently, in some roundabout way, I had a hand in my brother entering blogdome. He's launched a new site called I Got The Broken Cookie, and though it only has one post so far, it explains just how I was able to influence my impressionable younger sibling to join the rest of us who spend far too much time in front of our computers, writing.

He's an excellent writer with fabulous voice, and while I doubt he'll write much about sports, if you're into politics and humanitarian interests, I Got The Broken Cookie will be a place you'll want to stop.

Some other quick thoughts, since I won't be able to write any more tonight:

• I wonder if Lenny Wilkins' tenure as president of a franchise is the shortest in history. I also wonder if the guy is operating with a full deck anymore. From the way he botched the announcement of his imminent hiring as president -- I was listening to KJR when he sort of let it slip out of the bag, and it was rather feeble and pathetic -- to the way he botched the hiring of the GM, I'm glad the guy is no longer in charge of the franchise. Frank Hughes at The (Tacoma) News Tribune details all that went wrong here. The "put out to pasture" quote seems especially apt.
• I love the hire of Sam Presti as GM for the Sonics, as I think he'll bring a much needed breath of fresh air and a fresh approach to the franchise. I can't see this guy stockpiling the roster with 7-foot projects the way Rick Sund did. I'm a little troubled, though, that we have an owner who once owned part of the Spurs, and a GM who was a VP with the Spurs ... can Spurs assistant coach P.J. Carlesimo be far behind? (Although I have to admit, I think Carlesimo got a bit of a raw deal the first time around, and might have learned something from his years in San Antonio.)
• Here are some thoughts on the M's other first-day picks from Dave Cameron over at USS Mariner: "After the first round, the M’s selected five more players - college 3B Matt Mangini, HS outfielders Denny Almonte, Daniel Carroll, and Joe Dunigan, and college RHP Nolan Gallagher. Don’t read anything into the fact that they loaded up on toolsy young outfielders and any hidden meanings about their intentions regarding Ichiro - the decisions are completely disconnected from one another, and they were simply taking the players they thought were the best available at the time of the pick." Sounds like he really liked the draft, and since he really liked last year's draft, too, we can only hope that more sustained success lies ahead.
• Speaking of Phillippe Aumont, here's an interesting look at him from Geoff Baker, a fellow Canadian from the same area as Aumont. It's a very unique perspective that you won't get anywhere else.
• Is LeBron James going to get any help in this series? That's the only way the Cavs have a chance. Somebody else besides Drew Gooden is going to have to show up tomorrow night. I haven't seen that much standing around since noon hoops at the YMCA.

M's make HS pitcher Phillippe Aumont their No. 1 pick

With a day off for the Mariners, the attention of the organization turns to the future, and the future is ...

Phillippe Aumont, an 18-year-old 6-foot-7 righty from Quebec.

I won't pretend that I know anything about the guy; I'll leave that to the experts who are, to say the least, pleased that the kid fell to the M's at No. 11 after widespread fear that the organization would draft for immediate help at the expense of adding a quality prospect to the farm system.

• Aumont's draft report from minorleaguebaseball.com. A solid overview of what he brings to the table, including some video.
• A nice little interview with Aumont via The Hardball Times; it's an extensive Q&A that reveals a lot of his personality, I think.
• Dave Cameron's detailed take on Aumont over at U.S.S. Mariner. He compares Aumont's arsenal to Kevin Brown's.
• A column out of Canada on Aumont's experience with the scouting process.

Like I said, I don't pretend to know a lot about him, but I know I like it when I read stuff like this:

Baseball Analysts: Do you think you have the ability to throw harder someday or are you comfortable with the level you're at right now?

Phillippe Aumont: I know I need to work on a lot of things and for sure it's one of my goals. Once in my life I would like to top 100 [mph]. I'm comfortable with where I am; hitters don't hit me.

Baseball Analysts: So it's not about throwing harder for you?

Phillippe Aumont: No. In the major leagues, not everybody can throw 96-97 [mph] and they still get guys out.

Um, an 18-year-old who already understands it's not about throwing harder? I like this guy already. Just don't expect to see him in the bigs for a few years.

Can bullpen hold up enough to keep this 'special' feeling going?

I visit a lot of sites that analyze the Mariners, and so many of them center around numbers. I even dabble in the numbers a bit -- though not to the degree those Baseball Prospectus guys will -- and I've learned to gain a healthy appreciation for them by reading books like "Baseball Between the Numbers."

But sometimes, numbers just don't do the trick when we're talking about a team and its performance.

It's about time we all admit it: There's a different feeling about this Mariners club, it's something that can't be quantified with numbers, and it's a feeling that's going to make this team a heck of a lot of fun to watch the rest of this season.

Even Ichiro's getting on board.

"There is some kind of atmosphere that this team has,'' Ichiro said through an interpreter after his team completed its second consecutive late-game comeback against the Orioles. "I'm not exactly able to put a finger on it. But we definitely have something going on.''

The thing that's got me believing more and more everyday in this team is that they seem to be doing it in different ways now. There's never been any doubt that this team could roll on a pitcher and score seven to 10 runs on any given night. But there were always far too many zero- to two- or three-run nights.

Tuesday was different in that it wasn't like the M's were hammering the ball all night and not finding holes -- they were genuinely struggling against yet another mediocre junk-ball pitcher. Yet they figured out a way to come back against the Orioles' flammable bullpen yet again.

"Today was a situation where our opponent gave us a chance to win,'' Ichiro said. "So, when something like that happens, with the team that we have this year, I felt like, 'We can capture this.' ''

This from the guy who essentially said after taking five of six from Tampa Bay and Kansas City that the team was winning, but not in ways it would be able to sustain against quality opponents.

The turning point in my mind was the series with the Angels. Yes, they lost two of three, but the way they fought through the series -- and displayed some genuine irritation at not winning the series -- showed me this team just has a different make-up than M's teams of the last three years.

Of course, those that cling to numbers will point to the production the team is getting throughout its lineup, including increased contributions from hot hitters Kenji Johjima, Yuniesky Betancourt and Jose Lopez.

But there's just an intangible quality with this team: It now believes it can win any game, and that simply can't be quantified with numbers. I don't see the defeatest attitude that permeated every Mariners team the last three years. I see a team that continues to scrap, and has been doing a much better job of getting into teams' bullpens as of late.

Of course, what's allowed them to scrap has been the unbelievable pitching out of the bullpen, made even more astounding by the fact that this team is at the end of 23 straight games without a day off. They're now 28-0 in games they lead after the seventh inning, which is unbelievable praise for a unit that had all kinds of question marks -- George Sherrill's poor spring, Brandon Morrow's youth, J.J. Putz's health -- heading into the season.

For all the crap Mike Hargrove got at the beginning of the year -- and believe me, a lot of it was deserved -- he's done a great job managing those arms to be able to get the games that are winnable during this stretch. Even letting John Huber and Chris Reitsma get the snot beat out of them today probably was a good decision with two games against the Orioles already in hand.

Of bigger concern at the moment is whether those relievers can keep it up. Not because I'm worried about them so much as I'm worried about the starting pitchers, most of whom seem allergic to the seventh inning.

Felix has not looked like himself since returning from injury. Jarrod Washburn just threw up his second consecutive poor start, and those of us who thought his early-season success is a mirage might unfortunately be looking right. Miguel Batista, Horacio Ramirez and Jeff Weaver were predicatbly bad, and with Weaver returning from "injury" and Batista having proven across his mediocre career to be virtually indestructable, one has to wonder if the bullpen is going to start feeling the effects of carrying this team.

Get more innings out of Felix, get Washburn back on track, get Weaver in the bullpen and Ryan Feierabend into the rotation, and we might be on to something big. Fail to do those things, and those late-inning comebacks might be a thing of the past as close games slip away -- as it did today.

Wild card talk not as crazy as it might sound

Thanks for your patience this weekend while I was able to go out and enjoy a rare 80-plus-degree weekend here in the Seattle area. It was beautiful out, and I wasn't about to pass that up!

I also don't have much to say about beating the Rangers 3 out of 4 -- I mean, really, what else can you say about beating the crap out of the worst team in baseball? Hooray for bad baseball! I think Jeff Sullivan over at Lookout Landing said it best: This is what it must have been like to play the Mariners the last three years.

Meanwhile, Geoff Baker has picked up on the wild card angle this morning, and he's got some interesting thoughts about whether the M's are contenders. It was widely assumed early in the year that the West was the weakest of the American League divisions, with speculation that a record at or near .500 might be good enough to win its playoff berth.

It appears that couldn't be farther from the truth -- not with the Angels on pace at the moment for 100 wins. (By the way, our friends at coolstandings.com project the Angels for 93 wins and the M's for 84, if you're curious.)

All of this has led Baker to speculate that our early-season perceptions might not have been reality:

The other reason Seattle is so close in the wild-card, despite being only three games above .500, is the increased over-all "parity" or "mediocrity" or whatever you want to call it, in the AL. Look no further than the AL East to figure out why. The Boston Red Sox are the only team with a winning record in baseball's Cadillac division while everyone else stumbles around. You can blame a lack of pitching in the division for that one. Perhaps we truly are seeing a shift in the balance of power. I've believed for a while that the AL Central had become the best division in baseball. But it's also now possible that the AL East has become the worst division of the three in the AL. If that's the case -- and you can argue that the AL West's superior pitching does make it the better division of the two -- then teams previously dismissed outright as wild-card candidates have to be reconsidered. Hello, Mariners.

It often can be futile to look at wild card standings too early, but it's encouraging that the M's are all alone in second place. As Baker notes, it can be awfully difficult to jump over multiple teams in the standings, and as long as they can hang within a few game

The Tigers currently lead, and I'm not sure any of us think the M's are as good as Detroit, but I don't really see anyone else on that list that I would outright say is a better team than the M's. And that's encouraging in and of itself, if for nothing else than to give us something to look forward to this summer.

Oh, and if you're curious, here's the coolstandings.com graph on the M's playoff chances. Looking better than it was a week ago, as I believe the 21.2 percent is the highest it's been all season -- even higher than when they finished off their sweep of the Royals. (Get the coolstandings.com widget here.)